Hello Guest, please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
Login with username, password and session length.

Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Author Topic: Fortunes: Do you believe them?  (Read 5102 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Ryan

The only Canadian?
Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« on: December 17, 2007, 10:11:02 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 1915
Well I for one have never gotten my fortune told. I know some people that have. One of my friends was actually told she was going to die when she is fifteen. She is fourteen now so she only has one year to live? I don't know but I don't want to believe it. So this brings up the argument of whether fortune telling is real and believable.

I think it's fake. Do you?
Logged
  • Likes to Ramble

Swoftu

Super Fighting Robot
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2007, 10:13:24 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-3
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3096
Haha, easy answer:

!@#$% no.

Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2007, 10:16:27 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 5213
I was had a fortune cookie that I chocked on, Inside, the note said 'Better look next time'

 :huh:

But no, I dont really believe them, I consider the future impossible to predict.
Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2007, 10:21:07 pm »
  • *whistle*
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2224
Haha, something like this came up in my philosophy interview.

My basic answer was "psychics use psychology, or intuition, or simple deduction, but no way in hell can they really tell the future".
Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2007, 07:30:06 pm »
  • (y)(;>.<;)(y)
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3293
I tell fortunes every now and again, and I can say now: I could easily argue it's real, just not supernatural :P

My Tarot reading? I make it up as I go along looking at the pictures and words, and basically bullshitting my way six ways to Sunday. Some Barnum effect stuff mostly, generic statements which can apply to anyone but feel specific. What's fake about this? I am, after all, just reading the cards. The fact it the results follow a few known psychological principles doesn't change this at all.

My 'trancing out and revealing an unknowable fact about you'? Fake as hell if you observe it/I present it with the clear intent to make myself psychic, but take it at face value I'm just stating something about you, which I heard from word-of-mouth, read it somewhere (works great with grades) or you said it yourself and forgot. I'm just doing something weird at the same time. You just interpret it as being more than it is.

My personality analysis based on an object you give me? Simple Barnum effect readings. I'll leave it up to you to follow such a train of thought as I previously used and see where that goes.

I considered creating a program once where you entered one word which came to your mind at random, and it randomly created a generic 'astrology-esque' Barnum Effect reading. Tests into this idea by giving many people one analysis, not revealing they all got the same analysis and getting a rating out of 5 averaged at about 4.5, which proves my point pretty well. I use Barnum-statements a lot in the tarot as well. One of the Drews will know what I'm talking about.
Derren Brown did a similar experiment but world-wide and got similar results.

I never made any money from these, but I'll be damned if I haven't been tempted. Just go down to a busy cafe and start shuffling a Tarot pack, it won't be long until someone comes up to you asking if you do readings. Give them a low price of around £2 and they'll pay :P It's quite sad really.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2007, 08:12:07 pm by TheDarkJay »
Logged

Kyubi

GET ON THE BALL!
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2007, 08:49:19 pm »
  • :3
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2485
your fortune: Godly luck
Logged
Gannon-banned brother.

Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2007, 03:37:40 am »
  • *
  • Reputation: +9/-1
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 4654
No, fortunes are !@#$%
Logged


Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2007, 12:03:40 pm »
  • I need something new to put here...
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 1181
No, fortunes are !@#$%
Haha, easy answer:

!@#$% no.



Lol, Great arguments guys. XD

The thing is, if fortunes are real, you can't change them, otherwise as your future self, you would've known them and have changed them, creating a horrible paradox. Just like the term 'Nothing lasts forever'

IMO, fortunes are fake. The main one I know of, star signs, zodiac, etc... can almost be proven to be fake, I mean, looking at universal patterns in the sky to predict what will happen here... impossible, and how can one peice of writing relate to 1/12 of the worlds population?
Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2007, 04:19:22 pm »
  • (y)(;>.<;)(y)
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3293
Studies show roughly 50% of the British population believe in Horoscopes. This is more than ANY of the gods can claim individually (which means a lot of the members of the Churches aren't actually religious, they are just legal members for whatever reason and can't quit because the Church doesn't allow that, or something like that <_<).

To be honest, fortunes are boring. Too simple really. Just a combination of a few things like people remember those that come true and forget those that do not, the Barnum effect and of course people unintentionally will exaggerate them when telling others, and often convince themselves this exaggeration really happened. These things happen all the time, Magicians and 'fake' Psychics/Mediums make a business out of them.

It you want something interesting, look up Ouija boards. If you can (I haven't been able to), find Derren Browns Seance TV Special. It pretended to be live, and had a 'do your own Ouija Board scene' where you at home go along with it. This was all cleverly done to convince you the Ouija Board would move and do certain things, which because of Ideomotor action, it did.

To test Ideomotor out just pick up a necklace or something, hold it still dangling in front of you and without consciously moving it, just imagine it spinning. Visualise it spinning, and a lot of people find it eventually starts to spin, usually slowly at first then speeding up. Get it still again, and imagine it swinging back and forth, and again a lot of people find it does start doing so. The hand movements people make can even be quite noticeable to others, but the person themselves will swear they are not moving it. This is even used to fool people into believing it's a lie detector, and because they expect the truth to be revealed (say that's swinging north and south for yes, east and west for no), it swings in the way they expect and the truth it revealed.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2007, 04:21:02 pm by TheDarkJay »
Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2007, 05:42:04 pm »
  • 虫めづる姫君
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2990
I don't believe in fortunes, and I HATE astrology. I even go as far as to say I have no sign, because I don't believe in it.
Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2007, 10:33:36 pm »
  • Fear my Blades
  • *
  • Reputation: +3/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 562
One of my friends was actually told she was going to die when she is fifteen. She is fourteen now so she only has one year to live? I don't know but I don't want to believe it.

Heh, I've actually been told by two different people that I'm going to die at the age of 26.  I don't really believe in fortunes, and if I did I still know neither of them should be skilled enough to accurately predict them.  It is odd though that they both told me the same age when I'm sure they've never met each other.
Logged

I've done it (sorta)!  Bloom Lighting in GameMaker, and 3D mode too!  Check out the awesome Screen Saver.
  • Kousou Games
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2007, 05:45:01 pm »
  • (y)(;>.<;)(y)
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3293
What are the odds of winning the lottery and how many people do that each year?
Logged

Fox

Turnbeutelvergesser since 1988.
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2007, 09:05:34 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 4062
What are the odds of winning the lottery and how many people do that each year?
The chances are 50/50 as ANYTHING in your life. People are just too stupid to agree on that. Things either happen or they don't. There's no "In one out of hundred cases, it happens" (example), those predictions are bullpoop.

And I'm not even gonna read what else you people wrote. Swiftu and Fisher summed it up pretty much. Stars cannot predict the future, and even less than "not" can we humans predict the future. We can, using facts, assume things. "The big rainy cloud is moving towards central Europe, so chances are, it's gonna rain here tomorrow."

And I'm well aware of the irony of using "chances are" in my example, when above that I said "there's no chances or "probably"'s in life".
Logged
  • Me on deviantART
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2007, 09:09:08 pm »
  • (y)(;>.<;)(y)
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 3293
50/50...no. I'm sorry but, how the hell can you draw the conclusion of that? It makes no sense what so ever. If that was true then the computer random number generator between 1 and 100 and we wanted a 87 would produce 87 around 50% of the time (50/50). If that were true half the people buying lottery tickets would win the big money and we'd have the £17.5 thing from Bruce All-Mighty going on XD

Unless you talk about fate and stuff like that, which is just...not presently welcome in scientific discussion.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2007, 09:11:33 pm by TheDarkJay »
Logged
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2007, 09:12:57 pm »
  • 虫めづる姫君
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2990
I disagree about the "50/50" thing. Just because something may or may not happen, it doesn't mean there's always a 50% chance of it happening. If the chances of me falling down stairs was 50/50, I'd be pretty !@#$% up by now.
Logged

Fox

Turnbeutelvergesser since 1988.
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2007, 09:30:33 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 4062
50/50...no. I'm sorry but, how the hell can you draw the conclusion of that? It makes no sense what so ever. If that was true then the computer random number generator between 1 and 100 and we wanted a 87 would produce 87 around 50% of the time (50/50). If that were true half the people buying lottery tickets would win the big money and we'd have the £17.5 thing from Bruce All-Mighty going on XD

Unless you talk about fate and stuff like that, which is just...not presently welcome in scientific discussion.
As for your second example of the lottery, look at what I say to Sharon. As for your first example, you got it kinda wrong. If a generator gives you the number 87 out of 100, then this wasn't a 1%-probability that he did that, it was a 50/50-probability that he gave you the 87. The other 50 of the 50/50 were the chance that he didn't gave you that particular number, and instead another number. And that applies for every other number.

My logic makes perfect sense, even though most of you people might not see why.

I disagree about the "50/50" thing. Just because something may or may not happen, it doesn't mean there's always a 50% chance of it happening. If the chances of me falling down stairs was 50/50, I'd be pretty !@#$% up by now.
That's exactly it. You either fall down the stairs or you don't. It either happens or it doesn't. You're not falling the stairs down with a 2%-probability.

Probabilities are a messed up invention by mankind, as are numbers. The only difference is that numbers make sense as things in our dimension ARE countable and numbers are only names for those measures. Probabilities are just prediction and a thinking in the non-existent fourth dimension.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2007, 09:32:09 pm by Fox »
Logged
  • Me on deviantART
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2007, 09:35:56 pm »
  • 笑い男
  • *
  • Reputation: +9/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2124
lol, you're just saying you either win, or you dont, two options
but not the possibility of winning/losing, which is obviously different
Logged

この世に悪があるとすれば、それは人の心だ
  • .hack//The World

Fox

Turnbeutelvergesser since 1988.
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2007, 09:37:53 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 4062
lol, you're just saying you either win, or you dont, two options
but not the possibility of winning/losing, which is obviously different
That would be three options. See the Random-number example. Either you win or not, either you lose or not or either you get a draw or not.

Again, thinking about probabilities is a thinking in the future, they're predictions, an impossible thing.

I'm looking forward to more people giving me examples that they believe are completely ruining my logic. <3
« Last Edit: December 21, 2007, 09:40:39 pm by Fox »
Logged
  • Me on deviantART
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2007, 09:40:56 pm »
  • 笑い男
  • *
  • Reputation: +9/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 2124
i was just saying in general and so the possibility of drawing or not wasn't brought into it, but that's what you're saying anyway
you either get whatever result, or you don't, no?

dont quite see where this is going though? O_o lol
Logged

この世に悪があるとすれば、それは人の心だ
  • .hack//The World

Fox

Turnbeutelvergesser since 1988.
Re: Fortunes: Do you believe them?
« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2007, 09:49:27 pm »
  • *
  • Reputation: +0/-0
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Female
  • Posts: 4062
i was just saying in general and so the possibility of drawing or not wasn't brought into it, but that's what you're saying anyway
you either get whatever result, or you don't, no?

dont quite see where this is going though? O_o lol

... I'm not sure I quite understood what you mean, so I'm just gonna refer to one point:

you either get whatever result, or you don't, no?
Indeed. That pretty much sums it up. You either get this out of the lot or you don't (with "don't" being anything else out of the lot).

Edit: Right now I just thought that my logic results in infinity and an impossible finding of what event is going to take place. Like, "1 out of 5 options applies with a 50/50-probability but... it doesn't happen, so next up is 2 out of 5 options, which applies with a 50/50-probability, but... it doesn't happen either, so next up is 3 out of 5 options" and so on. I figured that even if you go through every option and it results in not happening, it HAS to be the last option remaining that is going to take place, no matter what.

God, I love supporting my own thoughts.

Second Edit: I just noticed that we accidentally turned this into a probability-discussion. I'll make another topic in which we can discuss this, alright?

K, there goes. No more probability-discussion here, only post in this topic about it: http://www.zfgc.com/forum/index.php?topic=22811.new#new

Now, onwards with "Fortune"-discussion in this topic.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2007, 09:55:42 pm by Fox »
Logged
  • Me on deviantART
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up

 


Contact Us | Legal | Advertise Here
2013 © ZFGC, All Rights Reserved



Page created in 0.04 seconds with 77 queries.